Midterm outlook: national wave vs. race-by-race reality

On this “TACO Trump Thursday” episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck breaks down how market pressure forced Donald Trump to abruptly back off his Greenland threats and announce a face-saving deal—one that looks suspiciously like what already existed—underscoring how easily Trump can be manipulated and how desperate he is to cement a sense of historical relevance. Even as Republicans in Congress continue to appease him, the damage to America’s relationships with Canada and Europe is already done, and Trump’s indifference to NATO and unilateral approach ensures lasting consequences well beyond any short-term retreat. The conversation then turns to the political fallout at home: the perilous midterm landscape for Democrats, a messy Minnesota Senate race, why conventional Republicans still can’t win blue-leaning states without a net-positive environment, and how figures like Bill Cassidy may have no path forward inside today’s GOP. Chuck also digs into the Democratic Party’s looming 2028 calendar fight, arguing the DNC should rethink its early-state strategy by looking hard at Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska—and remembering that winning rural America, not just big cities, is the only way to build a durable majority.

Finally, Chuck answers listeners’ questions and explains a gripe he has with the baseball Hall of Fame.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction - Welcome to TACO Thursday

00:30 Trump backs off Greenland threats & announces deal after markets tank

02:30 Mark Carney’s speech to Davos resonated & he won’t back off it

04:00 Trump is an easy mark, and a frustrating mark

04:30 They’re likely copy+pasting the same deal we had, but Trump signs it

05:30 Republicans in congress know they have to appease Trump

06:30 Trump is desperate to be historically relevant & will be

07:15 Trump did terrible damage to American relationship with Canada & Europe

08:15 Trump doesn’t care if NATO survives or will abide by the treaty

10:00 Trump backing down won’t change the trajectory of how other countries act

10:45 Trump’s unilateral actions will have consequences

12:15 Feels like a time the out party wins everything, but it’s a tough path for Dems

13:30 Democrats need to be careful with candidate selection to win midterms

14:15 Michelle Tafoya announces senate bid in Minnesota

15:00 Tafoya hasn’t announced much policy, mostly just anti-woke rhetoric

16:30 The Democratic senate primary in Minnesota has been messy

18:15 Conventional conservative Republican doesn’t win in Minnesota

19:30 Republicans would need to be in a net-positive environment to win Minnesota

21:15 If Susan Collins doesn’t run, Maine is off the board for Republicans

22:15 Julia Letlow announces race, promises to be rubber stamp for Trump

23:45 GOP establishment won’t get involved in helping Bill Cassidy

24:30 Cassidy’s only path to winning seat is to run as Independent

26:45 Paul Finnebaum will struggle to run in Alabama after Trump endorsement

28:30 Twelve states applied to be first in the nation for Democrats in 2028

29:30 Iowa should be the first in the nation Dem state

30:45 Iowa has been good to the Democratic party, just not the Clintons

32:45 Just winning Des Moines isn’t enough, you have to win rural areas

34:30 Big Super PAC money can overwhelm in the bigger states

37:15 DNC should look at Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska

45:00 Ask Chuck

45:45 Why are so many senators unwilling to challenge Trump on foreign policy?

51:15 Do political teams consult psychologists when dealing with Trump?

55:30 Why hasn’t Trump’s lack of student loan repayment program gotten attention?

58:45 Is it crazy to think that California could become a swing state?

1:02:45 Chances of Mike Johnson refusing to certify and seat a Democratic congress?

1:07:30 Baseball Hall of Fame has made itself irrelevant

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