Rational soothsaying
Think with Pinker
The Rooster Crows and the Sun Rises
A counter factual is a scenario in a make believe world that differs from what happened in this world. For example, how would the 20 first century have unfolded if the nine 11 high jackers had been stopped in the airport security lines? You might think that commentators on world affairs shouldn't have to think about counterfactuals. But they are vital because they probe our understanding of cause and effect. It's a difficult position to write a column and then have people read it 20 years afterwards say, g you were sure wrong.
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