Commodities vs managed futures and gold

In this episode we answer emails from Anonymous, Pete, and Wilhelm.  We discuss how MiFID reshapes investing for U.S. citizens retiring in the EU, the commodities fund HGER and the "Desert Portfolio."

Links:

Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center

IBKR MiFId Client Page:  MiFID Client Category

Portfolio Charts Assets Page (for finding funds):  Assets – Portfolio Charts

Animal Spirits Podcast re HGER: Talk Your Book: How to Invest in Commodities - Animal Spirits Podcast | Podcast on Spotify

Testfolio HGER Analysis:  testfol.io/analysis?s=dcDPCTQc1j6

HGER Fund Page:  ETF | Harbor Commodity All-Weather Strategy ETF (HGER) | Harbor Capital

Portfolio Charts Safe Withdrawal Rates Chart:  Withdrawal Rates – Portfolio Charts

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

Planning to retire in Europe while keeping a U.S.-style portfolio? The moment you change residency, MiFID rules can block purchases of U.S.-domiciled ETFs, turning routine rebalancing into a headache and putting your safe withdrawal rate at risk. We break down practical steps to keep your plan intact, including using Interactive Brokers to run a two-sleeve setup—sell-only in the U.S. account, buy in an EU account with UCITS equivalents—and how to make rebalancing work without creating a tax and paperwork nightmare. You’ll hear the pros, cons, and tradeoffs of each path so you can navigate regulation with confidence, not guesswork.

We also examine a smarter way to think about commodities. Legacy benchmarks like BCOM haven’t evolved with investor goals, and that’s where HGER’s rules-based design stands out with a quality and carry overlay that often elevates gold. But if you already hold gold, does a gold-tilted commodity fund add diversification or just overlap? We compare HGER to PDBC, highlight correlations with stocks and gold, and explain why managed futures can deliver broader, more resilient diversification across commodities, rates, and currencies. If you’re after true crisis defense, a blend of gold and managed futures may beat a traditional commodity sleeve.

To round it out, we stress-test the “desert portfolio”—high treasuries, modest equities, a touch of gold—and explain when its calm ride helps and when it lowers your long-term sustainable withdrawal. If your real objective is durable retirement income, consider upping equity exposure, adding value tilts, and relying on uncorrelated diversifiers that keep you rebalancing through drawdowns. Subscribe for more DIY-friendly portfolio tactics, share with a friend who’s eyeing an EU move, and leave a review to tell us what cross-border investing questions you want answered next.

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