The Fallacy of the Post-Hawk Hypothesis

The fallacy of the post hawk hypothesise onds like another statistical pitfal mike. Posta hypotheses are an explanation for an observation, motivated by the observation itself. By tailoring a narrative to that particular observation, at the expense of what else we could just as easily have observed, we assign special meaning to that observation. This then leads us to overstate the significance of that hypothesis, only to find that doesn't generalize to other observations. In order to avoid these influences, we oght to be careful to model not the particular details of their observed data, but rather the measurement process itself.