Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and founder of Zulauf Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share his market outlook for 2023 and beyond. Zulauf argues that recessions in China and Europe will weaken corporate earnings, and that as the U.S. economy also slows down, pessimistic earnings guidance from companies will quickly catalyze severe stock market declines. However, he thinks that the bear market will likely end in early 2023, because a credit event (likely in China) will force central banks - most notably the Federal Reserve - to stop tightening monetary policy, and that this “pivot” will arrest the fall in equity prices. Zulauf tells Jack Farley that China’s growing trade dominance is augering profound geopolitical and economic changes, and he shares his view on sovereign bond yields, cryptocurrencies, and commodity prices. Filmed on December 7, 2022
Zulauf Consulting is a boutique research and consulting firm that offers investment advisory services to institutional investors and family offices. For more information, go to https://www.felixzulauf.com/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:27) Profound Geopolitical Change
(05:51) Stock Market Outlook
(9:31) Potential Credit Meltdown In China
(18:06) Curve Sponsor Reading
(19:11) China's Stock Market Does Not Represent The Chinese Economy
(22:09) Why Is The Euro So Weak?
(24:09) The U.S. Dollar
(26:57) Felix Zulauf's Outlook on Treasury Bonds
(35:27) The Federal Reserve Will Pivot In Early 2023
(39:22) The Final Phase Of The Equity Bear Market
(45:12) Crypto
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
