BONUS: Noah Smith on the State of Macroeconomics
Macro Musings with David Beckworth
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The Chair of the Fed, Noah Smith
Noah Smith: The Fed does a lot more than just forecast. He says when Tetlock looks at who succeeds and fails, the people with the one big theory fail. And then he calls the eclectic people foxes and the foxes always win in his forecasting competition. "The rule is that you must always use discretion," writes Smith.
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