What Is Transformative Ai? | 2min snip from Effective Altruism: An Introduction

he there's like a question of leg what will happen to the world if we have a i that can do most of the tasks humans can do? And like, we believe it'll be wild, and it will lead to the world moving, like, much, much faster than it's currently moving. And like, future technologies being discovered at a much more rapid pace, in part because aiys can be made to run faster in subjective time than humans, and in part because they havead other advantages, like, you know, they can be arranged to have, like, really perfect memory, like no sleep, all that stuff. And so one disconnect is that i don't think that most of the people who answered that survey are imagining the consequences of a i that can solve most human tasks to be as radical as what we're imagining. So, like, what what we define as transformative ai is? Like, you know, in holden's blog post, he defined it as a i that has at least as profound an impact as the industrial revolution. And then in my report, iik have a sort of more quatified operationalization that's roughly a i that is the primary driver of growth rates. The growth of the world economy is like ten times faster than it is in 20 20. Soi 20 20, the world economy is growing al to three % per year. And that roughly is sort of like 25 to 30 years to double the economy. And so if you imagine growing ten times faster, that's like two to three years to double the economy. And the reason we're sort of choosing that threshold is kind of an arbitrary threshold, but the idea is that once we are at that pace, there are probably like further speed ups in the future. And basically, history is compressed when, like, growth is really fast. And so like, once the world is doubling every two to three years, human plans and like, human time scale actions become like dramatically less relevant to the world.

Six: Ajeya Cotra on worldview diversification and how big the future could be

Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 Hours

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