The Problem of Probability in the Natural Sciences

The problem of probable inference is much bigger than those problems which cons ute the field of the calculus of probability. The attempt to substitute a universal theory of probability for the category of causality characterizes an abortive mode of philosophizing. A statement is probable if our knowledge concerning its content is deficient. We do not know everything which would be required for a definite decision between true and not true but on the other hand, we do know something about it. There are two entirely different instances of probability: class probability or frequency probability, and case probability, or the specific understanding of the sciences of human action.