The Thesis on the Melt Up

David Hunter (@DaveHcontrarian), Chief Macro Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 83 to discuss his forecast for the market and economy.

Hunter, who’s been in markets for 50 years, is calling for the end of a 41-year bull market. He expects the market will continue to melt up, forecasting the S&P peak at 6,000 to 7,000 before a global bust. 

He’s also bullish on gold, calling for $3,000 by the end of the year. He also made a case for why gold could soar to $20,000 in the decade's second half. 

0:00 Intro 

0:40 Becoming a contrarian 

2:40 Macro view 

5:18 Stock market is one of the best leading indicators 

8:40 What is the market forecasting? 

11:22 Another melt up in the market 

16:39 Calling for the end of a 41-year bull market

18:24 Economic and market cycles 

20:17 Global bust forecast for 2024

23:05 Forecasting S&P peaking at 6,000-7,000, before 80% drop

29:00 Deflation

34:30 Bullish gold, calling for gold $3,000 this year, $20,000 second half of the decade

41:00 Outlook for the U.S. Dollar 

44:00 Treasuries 

47:00 The debt is ‘a giant Ponzi scheme’

49:20 Challenge to the thesis 

52:30 Parting thoughts