3min chapter

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Why Is the Recession Taking So Long to Show Up? | Bob Elliott

Hidden Forces

CHAPTER

The Fed's Predictive Ability to Forecast Inflation

The Fed has taken a relatively conservative view around trying to predict how things will play out and then using that to influence their monetary policy. Chairman Powell really took an unusual bet on the fact that inflation would be transitory and learn their lesson because they were dead wrong. The data that's come in is like core inflation over the last six months has been at 5% and flat. If anything, it might indicate that they should continue to tighten monetary policy.

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