Ask Chuck: Focus Groups on Independent Voters

Chuck Todd breaks down the latest NBC News poll, which paints a grim picture for both parties — and especially for Donald Trump’s second term. With only 37% of Americans believing the country is on the right track and financial pessimism at record highs, the public seems to have made up its mind: Trump 2.0 isn’t winning new fans. Chuck examines how Republicans are holding stronger favorability than Trump himself, why immigration remains his only issue advantage, and what Democrats can learn from the midterm mood. As two-thirds of voters say they’re falling behind, Chuck argues that the path to victory this cycle may depend on who runs against Washington — not just who runs it.

Then, Rich Thau, moderator of the Swing Voter Project joins Chuck Todd to dig into what America’s elusive swing voters are really thinking heading into 2028. Thau, known for his in-depth focus group research, explains how his team identifies true persuadable voters and what he’s hearing from them behind closed doors — from deep economic anxiety to their conflicted feelings about both Trump and Harris. He shares why many voters still give Trump credit for “doing something,” why Biden’s messaging never landed, and how gender and race remain stubborn barriers for Democratic candidates.

Chuck and Rich also explore how social media has replaced traditional news, why most swing voters can’t name a single Biden accomplishment, and how reform ideas like limiting presidential pardons or setting age caps for candidates could reshape American politics. It’s an eye-opening look at how frustrated, distracted, and disillusioned voters might once again decide the direction of the country.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to examine America’s role in creating the country of Panama and why it’s left a lasting sense of suspicion of the United States in Latin America. He answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and unloads on his Miami Hurricanes after their loss to SMU.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:00 New NBC poll 

03:15 The ToddCast will be live on election night!

07:00 First year report card for Donald Trump

07:30 Only 37% of the public believes country is headed in right direction

09:15 Wrong track polling nearly at an all-time high

10:15 The country has made up its mind about Donald Trump, low poll variance

13:00 40% of the country feels positively about Trump

15:30 Republican party has a higher positive rating than the Democrats

17:45 Some voters feel more favorably about the GOP than Trump

20:00 Voters thought they were getting Trump 1.0, Trump 2.0 is not popular 

20:45 Top issues voters are worried about aren’t favorable to Trump

23:00 Border security/immigration is the only issue where Trump is above water

25:00 R’s know Trump’s Venezuela actions are unconstitutional and roll over

27:00 More than half of voters think Trump is undermining the constitution

27:45 2/3rds of the country says they are falling behind financially

29:00 Midterm atmosphere is ripe for the Democrats

31:00 Trump’s high floor is enough to protect him

33:15 Winning Democrats will need to run against Washington

36:30 Rich Thau joins the Chuck ToddCast 

38:30 The value of focus groups in understanding voter opinions 

39:45 The pandemic made it easier to conduct focus groups remotely 

41:00 The challenges of remote focus groups 

42:00 How to prevent one loud person from hijacking a focus group 

44:00 Can you be an effective moderator if people know who you are? 

46:00 Do you check voter files to ensure people are swing voters? 

47:00 The screening process for focus group participants 

49:45 Voters express anti-Trump comments but wouldn't change vote to Harris 

54:00 Voters will twist themselves into pretzels for why they couldn't vote Harris 

54:30 Many voters wouldn't vote Harris due to her race and gender 

55:30 Gender was a disqualifier for Clinton & Harris 

58:45 Voters are following tariff news very closely 

59:15 Nearly half of voters couldn't name a Biden achievement 

59:45 Only Biden achievement voters were aware of was student debt relief 

1:00:30 Voters think that Trump is at least doing something 

1:02:30 Biden wasn't built for the modern media, couldn't message his wins 

1:03:30 Trump has mastered the attention economy 

1:04:15 Candidates can't rely on the media to communicate for them 

1:07:45 Voters thought Obama & Biden overreached as much as Trump 

1:09:15 Trump's consolidation of power doesn't seem unusual to swing voters 

1:10:45 Many voters are getting their news exclusively from social media 

1:13:15 Swing voters completely miss the process part of government 

1:14:45 If voters could ask Trump anything, Epstein question most common 

1:16:45 Swing voters bake in the worst things about Trump and vote for him anyway 

1:17:30 Biggest concern of swing voters is the economy and cost of living 

1:19:45 Swing voters viewed both Harris and Trump as unpleasant choices 

1:20:30 No Democrats are breaking through positively to swing voters 

1:21:15 Swing voters didn't like Gavin Newsom's trolling social posts 

1:23:45 Are swing voters skeptical of big tech and consolidated power 

1:24:45 Swing voters are easily dissatisfied and looking for someone new 

1:26:45 Most swing voters don't know the people in Trump's cabinet 

1:28:00 Swing voters aren't pining for a third party alternative 

1:29:15 Setting age limits for presidents would be popular 

1:32:45 Voters could be looking for another major change in 2028 

1:33:15 Voters could be open to several new constitutional amendments 

1:35:15 Pardon power could be shifted from president to a board 

1:36:15 Reform and corruption could be a powerful message 

1:37:30 Candidates will need a good answer for AI 

1:38:45 Regional trends in swing voters? 

1:41:45 Where to find Rich's work

1:44:30 ToddCast Time Machine 

1:45:00 This week in 1903 - The US helped create the country of Panama 

1:45:45 America built nations in Latin America to serve its own interests 

1:46:30 Winning Spanish-American war turned the U.S. into an empire 

1:48:00 Roosevelt didn't like Colombia's offer for the canal 

1:48:45 US warships backed up Colombian separatists 

1:50:00 Panama Canal opens in 1914 

1:50:30 Origin of the term "banana republic" 

1:51:15 Panama was built to serve American commerce 

1:53:15 It's clear the Trump administration wants to remove Maduro 

1:54:00 Latin America doesn't trust America's self serving behavior 

1:56:15 Ask Chuck 

1:56:45 Are some Republicans finally starting to find their spine? 

2:02:45 Has anyone been polling independent voters? 

2:04:15 Why don't Dems agree to open the government for a week or two? 

2:09:15 Thoughts on Oversight committee members being selected by other party? 

2:11:45 As a father, do you fear for the future and what gives you hope? 

2:16:30 College football recap

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