2min chapter

Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg cover image

How broken is social science? (with Matt Grossman)

Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg

CHAPTER

The Probability of Replicating a Study

Today, when I look at a paper in a top journal, I assume there's about a 40% chance it won't replicate. Do you think that I'm being overly pessimistic? "I would be pretty confident that you're going to get the same results," he says. The other thing is that some of the academic reformers believe this kind of study where we get the same result on a different population of people is as central to understanding the social world as some people seem to think.

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