The Future of Population: Long Bets and Projections

This chapter discusses the Long Bets project, emphasizing long-term thinking in relation to global population predictions. It delves into the implications of a potential peak and decline in population, examining the effects on economies and society amidst shifting fertility rates and data challenges.

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Kevin Kelly (@kevin2kelly) helped launch and edit Wired magazine. He has written for The New York Times, and The Wall Street Journal, among many other publications.

He is the author of the new book Excellent Advice for Living: Wisdom I Wish I'd Known Earlier. Other books by Kevin Kelly include Out of Control, the 1994 classic book on decentralized emergent systems; The Silver Cord, a graphic novel about robots and angels; What Technology Wants, a robust theory of technology; Vanishing Asia, his 50-year project to photograph the disappearing cultures of Asia, and The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future, a New York Times bestseller.

Kevin is currently co-chair of The Long Now Foundation, which is building a clock in a mountain that will tick for 10,000 years. He also has a daily blog; a weekly podcast about cool tools; and a weekly newsletter, Recomendo, a free, one-page list of six very brief recommendations of cool stuff. He is also a Senior Maverick at Wired. He lives in Pacifica, California.

Please enjoy!

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[05:51] Is Kevin Kelly the most interesting man in the world?

[08:37] Kevin’s long bet against the human population.

[15:00] Out Of Control.

[19:34] Why did it take 11 years to complete The Silver Cord?

[24:28] 1,000 True Fans.

[29:48] Kevin’s failed campaign to discover all the species of life on Earth.

[31:31] Stewart Brand.

[36:20] Ressurecting extinct species.

[39:38] Why Kevin believes optimists shape the future.

[42:48] Active optimism vs. passive optimism.

[46:39] What constitutes progress?

[48:18] Is regression inevitable if we don’t embrace “degrowth?”