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Jan Hatzius on the Narrow Path to Avoid a Hard Landing
Odd Lots
Is There a Real Recession in the Labor Market?
In our backward looking inflation is nine %. But if you look at expected inflation depending on the horizon, it's much, much lower. I do think the what we've seen in wages has been quite consistent with an overheated labour market. Most wage indicators are showing something like five and a half % aagrotn. That's a way higher than what's consistent with a no, two % inflation rate. So i think there is a real risk that if, you, if you did see, i a sharper donturn, that it would be difficult to know exactly what point you should reverse course on monetary policy.
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