Matt Welch: If Target can sustain what they're doing on the household staple fronts, it does provide them the opportunity to maybe pick up and surprise a little bit to the upside. Stock trades for about 20, 21 times forward earnings. Welch: What investors can hang their head on is the dividend. It's yielding about 2.6% right now. And there's upside there, given the balance sheet and spread between the dividend and what they're expecting for earnings per share in the year ahead.

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