On today’s episode of Forward Guidance, Jack is joined by two phenoms of macro analysis: Juliette Declercq of JDI Research and Darius Dale of 42Macro. The two explore the likelihood of the Fed’s much-desired “soft landing,” a scenario in which inflation moderates without a severe hit to economic growth or asset prices.
Both Declercq and Dale argue that a soft landing is unlikely and that a fall in inflation will likely require not only a steep selloff in stocks but also a nosedive in economic growth that could amount to a recession. The trio also discuss the natural rate of interest (“R*”), financial repression, and demand destruction.
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(00:00) Introduction
(00:45) The Most Confusing Times In Macro?
(04:30) How Far Can The Fed Go In Tightening Monetary Policy?
(10:35) Odds Of A Soft Landing
(21:02) What Will It Take To Break Inflation?
(26:20) Bit.com Ad
(26:52) The End Of Free Money
(29:54) Europe
(34:14) Shorting Equities
(38:00) "The Scariest Chart in Macro"
(44:07) Asset Allocation
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
