Introduction

Last Saturday the United States shot down what it described as a Chinese “spy balloon” off the coast of South Carolina, raising tensions between the two countries. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who was scheduled to leave for China on Sunday, postponed his visit. He described the incident as an “unacceptable” violation of America’s sovereignty and said that the balloon had “undermined” the purpose of his trip.

China, on its part, insists that the balloon was just a civilian “airship” that had strayed into American air space “completely accidentally”. Although it expressed ‘regret’, it described the U.S.’s military response as an “obvious overreaction and a serious violation of international practice.” It also warned of “necessary” responses. So, what kind of response can we expect from China? Will we see the effects of this incident once again in the South China Sea? And was it really a spy balloon? 

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