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Prediction Market FAQ

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

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Prediction Markets - How to Use Them to Find Out

There are lots of factual questions we would like near impossible to bias social consensus is on. For example, will this coronavirus vaccine work or have too many side effects? Will the climate change in such and such a way by such andsuch a year? Would X amount of funding lead to a cure for cancer? Cheap renewable energy? How long will a geopolitical conflict last? Who will win? Prediction markets give us a way to get accurate and canonical answers to these questions. See below for some clever, more exotic ways we can use prediction markets.

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