When Britain is shattered who do you need to win the next UK election?

Latest What's Left episode with pollster Luke Tryl drops amongst the “OMG this poll has Reform predicted to win 400 seats” hysteria. Chillllll, Winston, we’re still a few years out.

Of course, any given poll should be taken with a pinch of salt and a shot of tequila + lime. Politicos are taught not to read polls in isolation - but to look at the average across the polls for a sober analysis. Even then, you only have a limited snapshot and political parties and No 10 have their own operations with more accurate data.

But if we’re being fully real rn, to quote Castillo, the average of the public-facing polls is “not looking good brev [sic]”. So what explains Labour’s drop off and the dramatic rise of Reform in the polls since the election? Who better to ask than one of the UK’s leading pollsters, Luke Tryl.

Luke is the Executive Director of More in Common, widely rated as one of the best polling companies in SW1. He’s long had his finger on Westminster’s pulse, having served as a Special Advisor in the Department for Education during the Theresa May premiership following years on the think tank circuit. His analysis is deeply respected across the major parties, as shown by his frequent guest appearances on The News Agents’ podcast.

In this discussion we delved into More in Common’s latest report, ‘Shattered Britain’, and its segmentation of the electorate which identified 7 types of voter. In particular, we zoomed in on the growing anti-system sentiment across the UK and Labour’s challenge in being seen as defenders of a rotten orthodoxy.

Luke also made some adroit observations around the prospect of widespread social disorder, that has been whipped up by Farage and co over the past few weeks. No one wants to see the ugly and violent scenes we saw last year. Cool heads are needed to avoid talking ourselves into a febrile atmosphere. And Reform themselves would be wise to heed Luke's advice on how the public views such self-fulfilling prophecies...

So how can Labour win the next election? The government needs to be seen to deliver for normal people - it’s about returning control to the electorate around a politics of respect. A renewed social contract, where you give in and understand that you also get out. Now more than ever, we need to rebuke the Thatcherism that 'there is no such thing as society' and create an integrative common culture. Otherwise, the UK will capitulate to the f@r-r1ght. It really is that deep, I’m afraid.

Chapters

00:00 Intro

01:35 Britain is Shattered

11:23 Pro-System vs. Anti-System

21:23 What’s Causing Social Fragmentation?

30:30 Splitting the Left Vote

37:10 Better Political Comms

42:33 Impending Civil Unrest?

46:30 Immigration and Social Integration

53:10 Can our Electoral System Cope?

59:50 How to Win the Next Election

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Follow Luke on Tw*tter: @LukeTryl

Follow us on IG/TT: @wtf_is.left

Be safe be lucky people yh!

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