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The Recession Paradox | Alfonso Peccatiello
Forward Guidance
The Problem With Shorting Optionality
If you want to buy optionality for fat cuts somewhere in late 2024 that are consistent with a credit event or a recession, something that protects your P&L against one of these events, you can now buy these calls as cheap as the day before the banking crisis. This goes to show the confidence that people have rebuilt in the fact that there will not be a credit event. There will not been a recession. It's all fine. Against this backdrop, when you invest, you're always investing against market pricing, market consensus. You're buying assets that have a certain valuation.
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