Will New AI Companies Become the Biggest Winners?

Should the US put a price on H-1B visas, or would that block the flow of new talent? Are AI coding agents actually making teams way more productive, or is it just hype? And in the AI platform shift, will the big winners be incumbents or new AI-native startups?

Erik Torenberg is joined by Box co-founder and CEO Aaron Levie, a16z board partner Steven Sinofsky, and a16z general partner Martin Casado to debate the biggest questions in tech. They unpack pricing vs lottery for H-1Bs and what we’re actually optimizing for, why Box now ships a third of its code from AI, the shift from writing to reviewing code, and why bottom-up personal AI tools succeed where top-down “AI pilots” struggle.

Timecodes: 

0:00 Introduction

1:07  Latest immigration policy and who benefits

1:39  Debating the Price on H-1B Visas

2:11  Startups vs. Big Tech: Who Benefits from Policy?

2:31  Market Dynamics and Wage Impacts

3:44  The Lottery System and Startup Challenges

12:25  Labor Markets to Labor Productivity with AIs

14:47  Startups Achieving 10x Productivity with AI

16:43  Early Adopters, Hype, and Measuring Productivity

33:50  AI’s Impact on Professional and Creative Work

37:56  The Rise of AI-Native Startups

40:58  Platform Shifts: Startups vs. Incumbents

42:12  Disruption, Incumbents, and New Opportunities

53:00  The Future of Work and AI Adoption

54:38  Brand Effects and Early Leaders in AI

55:22  Will Incumbents or Newcomers Win the AI Race?

Resources:

Find Aaron on X: https://x.com/levie

Find Steven on X: https://x.com/stevesi

Find Martin on X: https://x.com/martin_casado

Find Erik on X: https://x.com/eriktorenberg

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

Stay Updated:

Find a16z on X

Find a16z on LinkedIn

Listen to the a16z Podcast on Spotify

Listen to the a16z Podcast on Apple Podcasts

Follow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg

Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

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