Immigration, Labor Force Dynamics, and Break-Even Job Growth

This week, Kevin Gordon fills in for Kathy Jones. Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin discuss the recent NABE conference and the current state of the markets in light of the government shutdown and recent tariff announcements. They explore the implications for earnings season, the potential impact of AI on productivity, and the challenges facing the labor market. They also cover the importance of upcoming economic data releases and how relying on alternative data could have potential effects on market trends and monetary policy.

Then, Liz Ann is joined by Patrick Harker, former president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Harker discusses several economic challenges facing the U.S., including the impact of the government shutdown on economic data, the independence of the Federal Reserve, and the complexities of fiscal policy. He shares his thoughts on the need for better data collection and the role of private-sector data sources, while also addressing the labor market dynamics influenced by immigration policy. Harker reflects on his tenure at the Philadelphia Fed and shares insights on the importance of pragmatic policymaking.

Finally, Liz Ann and Kevin take a look ahead at upcoming economic indicators and how the government shutdown could affect future data releases.

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