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SI276: TTU YEAR-END Special Part 2

Top Traders Unplugged

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Predicting Distribution of Outcomes and the Impact of Populism

This chapter explores the importance of predicting the distribution of potential outcomes rather than specific outcomes, focusing on the impact of populism and fiscal spending on higher rates, de-globalization, and geopolitical conflicts. It discusses the regime change driven by populism and its effect on the Federal Reserve's decision-making and the distribution of outcomes for different assets.

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