Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 Hours cover image

Eight: Prof Hilary Greaves on moral cluelessness, population ethics, & harnessing the brainpower of academia to tackle the most important research questions

Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 Hours

CHAPTER

Is There a Difference Between the Long and Short Tim Effects?

When we're being rational, the way we thinkthat we should deal with uncertainty is by doing following expected value. But in this case it's really unclear what our credences ought to be about all the important, unforeseeable stuff. So for that kind of behaviour to make sense, once you've taken on board worries about cluelessness, you have to be making a judgment call That in the long run, the er, the net effect of this intervention both let most of, the most of the important effects of this intervention, in expectation, go vira causal chain.

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