Together with Cem Karsan we take the pulse of the evolving landscape investors are faced with amidst rising interest rates and market volatility. A key takeaway is the recognition of structural changes in bond markets, with the potential for significantly higher yields impacting investment strategies. We explore the implications of current geopolitical dynamics, including Trump's perhaps surprising approach to China, his expansionary agenda and how it may shape market expectations moving forward. We also address the challenges of navigating a world where traditional hedging strategies in markets like fixed income are becoming increasingly difficult. With insights into market sentiment and potential counter-trend rallies, this episode provides a thought-provoking look at the complexities facing investors right now.
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Episode TimeStamps:
01:19 - What has caught our attention recently?
06:39 - Industry performance update
08:34 - Long term skew in vol markets is causing trouble
13:41 - Approaching OPEX - what is in sight?
21:28 - Does a strong S&P500 performance indicate an incoming crisis?
24:08 - Are we approaching a counter trend rally?
26:33 - It's getting hard to hedge
35:16 - Investors are long without realizing it
38:34 - We need a shadow Fed President
43:23 - We are in a leadership vacuum
47:58 - Early signs of improvement in China?
55:31 - Will Elon Musk change the narrative around China?
59:02 - What is up for next week?
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