Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show for an in-person episode to recap the FOMC, discuss the state of the economy, housing, and his highest conviction ideas.
Sponsor:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen's first in-studio appearance
0:24 Julia's introduction highlighting Chris's credentials and analysis
1:16 Fed takeaway - Steve Miran only governor wanting 50bp cut
2:19 Housing emergency coming - Fed drove prices up, Trump faces constraint
2:31 Housing scenarios - mortgage rates retreating after quarter point
4:17 Monetary Metals ad read
5:34 Housing psychology - homeowners trying to sell at the top
6:53 Office space comparison - no longer premium asset class
7:38 Fed rate cut outlook - may not see more cuts for months
9:58 Bank balance sheet problems - mortgage securities underwater
10:54 Politics of inflation - housing affordability crisis
13:10 Viewer housing question response - Florida 1924 parallels
15:32 DC trip on GSEs - still no roadmap from Treasury
18:43 Fannie/Freddie trade - made 30% then got out
19:54 Taking profits
22:36 Watching the herd mentality
25:20 Dollar/deficit thesis - weaker dollar, Treasury pressure ahead
27:47 Fed restructuring vision - eliminate Board of Governors
31:09 Housing emergency declaration - resuming MBS purchases discussion
33:51 Mixed economy - wealthy vs bottom quartile struggling
34:34 Debt myths - Americans love inflation, debt is currency
36:18 Highest conviction trade - gold and strategic silver
