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Noel Smith, Chief Investment Officer & founder at Convex Asset Management joins Jack Farley to talk all things volatility: how does it affect the S & P 500 options, stocks, and bonds? When Noel Smith first came on Forward Guidance in June, he predicted the market would not crash. That has played out very well as the S&P 500 has surged higher since then volatility has fallen. Since Noel’s prediction turned to be completely accurate, Jack wants to know: is Noel a genius, or did he just get lucky? Noel and Jack talk about the dispersion between index volatility and single stock volatility, as well as the flipping of stock/bond correlation. Does Noel think volatility will return to the markets? You need to watch to find out!
Filmed the morning of July 27, 2022 (before the FOMC meeting).
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Link to Noel’s first video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snBiim-UUWw
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Follow Noel Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/NoelConvex
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(00:00) Introduction
(01:30) Reflecting on Smith's Earlier Predictions
(07:09) Forward Volatility
(10:53) New Outlooks
(19:08) Single Stock Volatility and Dispersion Trade
(22:00) Navigating High Environments
(27:34) The Fall of the 60/40 Portfolio
(33:15) The Nature Of Money
(37:08) Views on Trading Bonds and Volatility
(44:52) Correlations Between Stocks And Sectors
(49:52) Euro Dollar Futures Market vs. The Fed
(54:40) S and P 500 Options Volatility Market
(57:05) Short Squeezes
(1:02:10) Looking at Revenues within Companies
(1:04:12) Are we headed towards a recession?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
