2min chapter

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Why Ukraine isn't joining Nato

The Fourcast

CHAPTER

The Ukrainian Armistice Is a Recipe for Further Instability

A Korean-style kind of armistice that leaves troops in place along a demilitarized zone or along a line of contact is probably the path of least resistance. We still see clashes between North and South Korea to this day, some of them relatively costly even in the last five or ten years. The real question is what happens in this Ukrainian offensive. It has not been particularly successful so far, but that does not mean that we couldn't see some major breakthrough.

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