Be it Resolved, The risk of a recession in 2023 is overblown
The Munk Debates Podcast
Is the Fed Contracting the Money Supply?
The money supply should be growing if they were allowing it to grow at a rate consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target. The last three months, actually, commercial banks have cut back on their landing and become stingier. With that, you will find that with a lag of 16, 16 to 18 months, you get a contraction in the real economy.
The holiday season is just around the corner, which brings with it cheer, merriment, and a sense of good will towards all men and women. But for many families, it also brings a good deal of financial strain. And perhaps this year more than any in the last decade, that stress is more acute. The volatility of the global economy over the last three years has reached a fever pitch, with many expecting an even more dire 2023. For the majority of economists and market prognosticators, a recession in 2023 is a foregone conclusion. As inflation has remained stubbornly high, central banks around the globe have rushed to contain the fallout by raising interest rates aggressively. As money becomes more expensive to borrow, the economy will inevitably contract. Combine that with COVID restrictions in China and the war in Ukraine, and we are in for some choppy seas. For them, the question is not if, but when and how deep. But other economic experts believe that in spite of the turbulence, market fundamentals remain strong. Inflation is abating, central banks are slowly taking their foot off the gas, and 2023 will be a blockbuster year for the global economy. The risk of recession is overblown, and the sky will not in fact fall.
Christopher Thornberg
BIO
Christopher Thornberg is Director of the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development and an Adjunct Professor at the School. He founded Beacon Economics LLC in 2006. Under his leadership the firm has become one of the most respected research organizations in California serving public and private sector clients across the United States.
An expert in economic and revenue forecasting, regional economics, economic policy, and labor and real estate markets, Dr. Thornberg has consulted for private industry, cities, counties, and public agencies in Los Angeles, San Francisco and the Bay Area, San Diego, the Inland Empire, New York, Seattle, Orange County, Sacramento, Arizona, Nevada, and other geographies across the nation. He has also worked on Wall Street, advising hedge fund manager Paulson & Co. about macroeconomic issues.
A well-known media commentator, Dr. Thornberg has appeared on all the major networks, CNN, NPR, and is regularly quoted in major national dailies including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and Los Angeles Times.
Steve Hanke
BIO
Steve H. Hanke is a professor of applied economics and founder and codirector of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. He served on President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers.
Hanke is also a senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C., a senior fellow at the Independent Institute in Oakland, California, a senior adviser at the Renmin University of China’s International Monetary Research Institute in Beijing, and a special counselor to the Center for Financial Stability in New York. Hanke is also a contributing editor at Central Banking in London and a contributor at National Review. In addition, Hanke is a member of the Charter Council of the Society for Economic Measurement and of the Euromoney Country Risk’s Experts Panel.
Speaker Quotes
CHRIS THORNBERG: “If you're looking at Wall Street, I think 2023 is going to look like a recession. If you're looking at Main Street, I don't think it will ”.
STEVE HANKE: “We'll have I think about a 90% chance of a recession next year. You take the fuel out of the engine and it crashes on you”.
The host of the Munk Debates is Rudyard Griffiths - @rudyardg.
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