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Is the Job Market Stable?
We expect that instead of having 8 million job losses like we saw in the 0809 period, we'll see about 2 million job losses at peak in the United States as a result of the Fed policies. So it is going to be significant, but it's not going to be anywhere near what we've seen in the worst situations in the past. The likelihood of direct military confrontation in Iran is higher than at any point since the JCPOA, the Iranian nuclear deal was originally signed in the Obama administration. There are just a bunch of emerging markets that are particularly vulnerable to the economic shocks that David is talking about because they've got dollar-denominated debt in an inflationary environment.