17min chapter

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis cover image

Surveying 2,700+ AI Researchers on the Industry's Future with Katja Grace of AI Impacts

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis

CHAPTER

Surveying Uncertainty: Perspectives on AI Future

This chapter analyzes the diverse range of opinions and uncertainties within the AI research community regarding the extreme outcomes of artificial intelligence, emphasizing the prevalence of radical uncertainty among researchers. It discusses survey results on human extinction and severe disempowerment due to AI advancements, highlighting variations in responses. The conversation delves into the challenges of assigning probabilities to uncertain events and the importance of considering extreme scenarios for shaping agendas and reducing uncertainty.

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