How to Evaluate a Forecaster's Competence

The world is an uncertain place. It is more uncertain to day than at any other time in our lifetimes. Few people know what the future holds, much better than others. Investors can't avoid making decisions about it. The essential conundrum confidence is indispensable in investing, but too much of it can be lethal. People who lack the cognitive skills required to perform a task typically also lack the meda cognitive skills needed to assess their performance. Incompetent people are at a double disadvantage, since they are not only incompetent, but likely unaware of the incompetence of most forecasters.