Decoding Voter Behavior

Chuck Todd reacts to the news that North Carolina senator Thom Tillis won’t seek reelection, why harassment from the Trump team led to his decision, and why his decision gives Democrats another opportunity to pick up a senate seat in the 2026 midterm elections. He also highlights the path for Democrats to win the senate in 26’ and cautions Republicans about the potential of a Democratic president abusing their power in a similar way to Trump.

Then, Chuck sits down with renowned pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson to dissect the seismic shifts in American politics following the 2024 election. They dive deep into the surprising demographic realignments that defined Trump's victory, including his unprecedented gains with young and Latino voters, while exploring whether traditional demographic-based political messaging has become obsolete. Anderson shares insights from Pew Research's unique voter validation methodology and explains why the biggest story of 2024 wasn't who showed up to vote, but rather the millions of Biden 2020 supporters who stayed home.

The conversation spans from foreign policy contradictions—where only 8% support attacking Iran but majorities back preventing Iranian nuclear weapons—to the evolving nature of political coalitions and whether we're witnessing a return to pre-Obama era electoral patterns. Anderson and Todd examine the psychological profile of different generations, particularly Gen Z's political malleability and loss of societal trust shaped by COVID, while discussing the future challenges facing pollsters as AI technology threatens traditional survey methodology. They conclude by analyzing whether 2024 represented a "vote for" or "vote against" election, and how both parties must adapt to meet an increasingly anti-establishment electorate.

Finally, Chuck answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment about baseball, the media, and the prospects of Republican congressman Mike Lawler running for governor in New York.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Introduction

01:00 Senator Thom Tillis won’t seek reelection

02:00 Tillis struggled to fully embrace Trumpism/MAGA

03:00 Tillis felt harassed by the Trump team

05:30 Rep. Don Bacon also not seeking reelection

08:00 Tillis retirement makes Roy Cooper senate run more likely

09:15 Lara Trump may run for Tillis’s seat

11:00 Trump has caused multiple senate seats to flip blue

12:15 How Democrats can pick up the seats to flip the senate

13:15 North Carolina, Texas, Maine could all be in play for Democrats

15:30 Susan Collin managed to make both sides mad

17:00 Louisiana probably out of reach for Democrats

18:30 Other states Democrats can target

22:00 Budget cuts to rural states could create openings for Democrats

24:15 It’s an uphill battle for Democrats, but they’re in the game

28:00 It’s been a tumultuous week in politics

28:30 Trump has pushed the limits of his powers

29:30 Trump has created a blueprint for successors to follow

31:00 We’ve grown numb to power being used for personal gain

32:00 Politics was becoming less corrupt until Trump

34:00 After Nixon, the country wanted a high character president

35:15 The constitutional guardrails are being weakened

37:00 Is the ability to get attention the most important skill in politics?

37:45 Kristen Soltis Anderson joins the Chuck ToddCast! 

39:15 How Pew Research's voter validation poll works 

41:15 Why Pew's poll is the best survey of both voters and non-voters 

42:30 Voters have an Iraq hangover when viewing the Iran strikes 

43:30 Public opinion on foreign policy is complicated and contradictory 

44:15 Only 8% of the public supports attacking Iran 

45:00 The public supports intervention to prevent Iran nuclear weapon 

46:45 Are Republican voters party first, or Trump supporters? 

48:30 Polling on Iran hinges on what we actually achieved with strikes 

50:00 Huge jump in Hispanic support for Trump in 2024 

52:15 Trump gained most with young and latino voters 53:45 

Has the electorate reverted to the pre-Obama era? 

55:30 Are demographics overrated in messaging? 

57:15 Urban/rural divide shrank in 2024 

1:00:15 Biggest story of 24' was Biden 20' voters that didn't show up

1:02:15 The parties need to meet voters where they are 

1:03:15 Takeaways from Mamdani's victory in NYC? 

1:04:30 Bullish on media savvy populists 

1:06:15 AOC is a 5 star political athlete 

1:08:45 Was 2024 a "vote for" or "vote against" election? 

1:10:15 Voters continue to vote against the status quo 

1:11:30 Where is the electorate stable/unstable? 

1:14:00 Has Trump changed the perception of what government should do? 

1:16:00 Republicans want state intervention in "woke" business over illegality 

1:17:15 What is the best methodology for conducting polls? 

1:20:30 Best way to contact people for polls? 

1:22:30 Generative AI will cause major problems for pollsters 

1:25:15 Can averaging polls be helpful? 

1:27:45 Averaging national polls vs. state polls 

1:29:15 Impact of millennials becoming largest voting bloc 

1:30:30 Gen Z is politically malleable 

1:31:15 The COVID effect on Gen-Z's politics 

1:33:15 Gen Z has lost trust and faith in society 

1:35:15 How lasting is someone's "coming of age" moment in politics?

1:38:45 Chuck's thoughts on interview with Kristen Soltis Anderson 

1:41:45 Ask Chuck 1:42:15 Naming the Florida Marlins the "Miami Marlins"? 

1:47:15 Is the media failing to handle Trump's flood the zone strategy?  

1:51:30 Could Mike Lawler win in New York or rise in the Republican party?