10min chapter

FiveThirtyEight Politics cover image

What To Expect From The First Presidential Debate

FiveThirtyEight Politics

CHAPTER

Analyzing the Impact of Election Debates on Voter Decisions

The chapter explores the historical data on the influence of presidential debates on changing voter support, highlighting minimal shifts for incumbents but slight increases for challengers post-debate. Speakers debate whether the upcoming debate could sway undecided voters amidst a closely contested election, considering factors like likability and timing. They discuss how past debate performances of candidates like Trump, Obama, and Reagan have impacted voter opinions and emphasize the uncertainty of debates significantly swaying voters in today's polarized environment.

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