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Economic Truth-Telling in an Age of Narratives

The Dividend Cafe

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The Operative Indicator of GDP Growth Is the Consumer.

Consumer activity is the heaviest weighted component in g d p. It's telling you what the consumer just got done doing based on what they just got done feeling. The animal spirit is a pretty permanent dynamic of the human being, but particularly the American consumer. There are events that bring down american's ability to consume and when we see that it almost always means you're already into a recession.

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