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The Importance of Beliefs About the World
It seems to me like it's not very hard to notice ways in which almost everyone is being pretty dumb about things. I've been interested for a long time in the question of whether really powerful AI might pose an existential risk. Back when I first started thinking about this in 2010 or whenever, the mainstream opinion seemed to be that this was pretty crazy and definitely wouldn't happen. And so I think I made this incorrect jump from the mainstream opinion on this topic.