Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, discusses his macro view of the economy and markets.
He believes that the market is ahead of the Fed and that inflation will not come down as quickly as people think due to demographic factors. Bassman also discusses the yield curve and its implications for a recession.
He recommends investing in mortgage-backed securities due to their attractive risk-return profile.
Finally, Bassman, the "Convexity Maven," explains convexity and its importance in bond investing.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/convexitymaven
Convexity Maven: https://www.convexitymaven.com/
Simplify Asset Management: https://www.simplify.us/
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and macro view
03:03 Inflation and Fed Policy
05:01 Inflation expectations
07:26 Yield Curve and recession
10:06 Trade Opportunities in bonds
14:47 Mortgage-Backed Securities and convexity
19:55 Rate expectations and mortgage bond trade
20:15 Understanding convexity
25:55 Wrap up
