The Sixth Recession Red Flag Model

If the labor market starts to get weaker and weaker, I believe the federal reserve will change a lot of their talking points. Once the jobless claims data four week moving average gets above 323 or 323,000 that means the job loss recession is here. It's in their own forecast actually for this to occur next year. The growth rate of inflation cannot sustain itself through shelter inflation. We already see the data getting weaker and softer in the other data lines. CPI will lag. If all these things happen with the growth rate offlation, jobs being lost, recession bond yields 5%? So when rates fall, it's a disproportionate benefit to housing system which is designed to keep home prices up