The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Merger Market

Under a similar scenario for 2023-2024, we would expect a more benign impact on the merger market. The current rate and mix also suggest a less severe default trajectory if the next downturn resembles 1991 or 2001 recessions. A higher impact on the banking sector as in the global financial crisis can have a larger expected narrative impact on the real estate sector. It just depends on how many of these stars that we're concerned about align at the same time.