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The Probability of a Mutineer's Death
I think it's too early to be sure quite how this turns out. There's clearly a scenario in which by year end a pregosian has met the fate of so many of Putin's enemies either through a window, or as a result of some other form of assassination. Those who sided with him who haven't transferred their allegiance to the official army get taken out - that's possible. The probability of regime change in Russia just went up. And that means that the Ukrainian war will end I think when Putin's gone.