Online crime is accelerating, making cybersecurity a fast-growing and resilient investment opportunity. Our Cybersecurity and Network and Equipment analyst Meta Marshall discusses the key trends driving this market shift.
Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Meta Marshall, Morgan Stanley’s Cybersecurity and Network and Equipment Analyst. Today – the future of digital defense against cybercrime.
It’s Friday, September 12th, at 10am in New York.
Imagine waking up to find your bank account drained, your business operations frozen, or your personal data exposed – all because of a cyberattack. Today, cybersecurity isn't an esoteric tech issue. It impacts all of us, both as consumers and investors.
As the digital landscape grows increasingly complex, the scale and severity of cybercrime expand in tandem. This means that even as companies spend more, the risks are multiplying even faster. For investors, this is both a warning and an opportunity.
Cybersecurity is now a $270 billion market. And we expect it to grow at 12 percent per year through 2028. That's one of the fastest growth rates across software.
And here's another number worth noting: Chief Information Officers we surveyed expect cybersecurity spending to grow 50 percent faster than software spending as a whole. This makes cybersecurity the most defensive area of IT budgets—meaning it’s least likely to be cut, even in tough times.
This hasn’t been lost on investors. Security software has outperformed the broader market, and over the past three years, security stocks have delivered a 58 percent return, compared to just 22 percent for software overall and 79 percent for the NASDAQ. We expect this outperformance against software to continue as AI expands the number of ways hackers can get in and the ways those threats are evolving.
Looking ahead, we see a handful of interconnected mega themes driving investment opportunities in cybersecurity. One of the biggest is platformization – consolidating security tools into a unified platform. Today, major companies juggle on average 130 different cyber security tools. This approach often creates complexity, not clarity, and can leave dangerous gaps in protection particularly as the rise of connected devices like robots and drones is making unified security platforms more important than ever.
And something else to keep in mind: right now, security investments make up only 1 percent of overall AI spending, compared to 6 percent of total IT budgets—so there’s a lot of room to grow as AI becomes ever more central to business operations.
In today’s cybersecurity race, it’s not enough to simply pile on more tools or chase the latest buzzwords. We think some of the biggest potential winners are cybersecurity providers who can turn chaos into clarity. In addition to growing revenue and free cash flow, these businesses are weaving together fragmented defenses into unified, easy-to-manage platforms. They want to get smarter, faster, and more resilient – not just bigger. They understand that it’s key to cut through the noise, make systems work seamlessly together, and adapt on a dime as new threats emerge. In cybersecurity, complexity is the enemy—and simplicity is the new superpower.
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