Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns for an in-person conversation for episode 303. Whalen warns that stocks and crypto are slowing down as they run out of buyers, while real estate pain continues with older assets selling at discounts and more trouble ahead for private equity and private credit. He attributes Zohran Mamdani's NYC mayoral victory to inflation-driven affordability concerns, predicts a home price correction by 2027-28, and expects continued corporate exodus from New York City as long-term leases roll off. Whalen criticizes the Fed for pushing home prices up 50% since COVID and failing their mandate on price stability, discusses widespread fraud in private credit markets, and highlights Bank of America's duration risk mistakes compared to JPMorgan and Citi. He's currently focused on gold and junior mining stocks, explaining the "debasement trade" as central banks worldwide shift to gold as their primary reserve asset, while predicting crypto will "go bye-bye" and calling stablecoins a dead end.
This episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia
This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Timestamps:
0:00 - Welcome and introduction
1:02 - Reaction to Mamdani election
2:03 - Is this the product of inflation?
2:10 - Inflation driving affordability issues, Fed's failure
2:54 - Heading into correction in home prices by 2027-28
5:26 - How mortgage lenders set rates vs. bond market
6:33 - Will we see a housing emergency declared?
12:08 - Outlook for New York for next four years
14:59 - Big picture view: stocks and crypto slowing down
15:30 - Pain in real estate, private equity, and private credit
20:37 - Duration risk story at banks
27:47 - Will we get December rate cut?
29:17 - Fed funds rate targeting piece
32:49 - Chris's portfolio: taking acorns off the table
35:59 - The debasement trade
39:36 - Crypto going bye-bye, stable coins a dead end
42:05 - Closing remarks
