The Recession That Didn’t Bark | GoodFellows: John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, H. R. McMaster | Hoover Institution
GoodFellows: Conversations from the Hoover Institution
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The Importance of Predicting Recessions
The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, but not yet much above current inflation. There's a lot of classic wisdom that thinks you have to get interest rates substantially above inflation to cause a recession or to bring inflation down. The real interest rate, the interest rate net of what people think will happen to inflation is where it is because there's no is what people expect of inflation. But it's not strikingly high.
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