The Fed's Concern About Recession Strength

There's no historical evidence that this consensus being surprised about a recession means it's going to be harsher. What makes a recession tough and magnitude, or kind of a more less than shallow or less than mild, is obviously the amount of tightening we see. The number one thing we're going to be talking about next year is what's the actual level of the neutral Fed funds rate? It's probably gone up a lot, but deciding that cash analysis that we just highlighted to tons of cash and corporate and consumer balance sheets.