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Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class V Part II [9.22.15]

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The Importance of Carrying Deeply

There's an experimental literature that looks at these offsetting motives that desire to be accurate on the one hand and the desire to reach a specific conclusion. We don't really know this, but there probably is some more optimal level of stress for promoting the literature. Obviously, carrying a lot about the issues doesn't motivate you to immerse yourself in material,. But it motivates you to create a biased case for a particular conclusion.

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