The Pandemic May Be Changing Seasonal Patterns

This January, the decline was just 2.5 million jobs, or 1.6%, which resulted in a much stronger than expected seasonally adjusted gain of 517,000 positions. Some of this probably does reflect genuine continued labour market momentum, however there could well be some seasonal distortions also. Warmer than normal weather likely helps January retail sales, with no major snowstorms in the Northeast typically disrupt traffic at restaurants, auto dealers and malls. Strong retail sales for January should lead to a surge in consumer spending in this Friday's Personal Income and Outlet's report. But it could also push the personal savings rate below 3% again, compared to an average of 7.7%.