The Case for Precision and Accuracy in Macroeconomics

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"It's not obvious to me that we've gotten better at distinguishing causal impacts from correlations," he says. "I see different smart, really smart people say that effects are just not just different size but have different signs" The question is whether the precision and accuracy of what we've discovered with new techniques has improved public policy or not,. But if you draw back and say, where is social science in macro? I mean, again, by what standard?"

Joshua Angrist of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology talks to EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the craft of econometrics--how to use economic thinking and statistical methods to make sense of data and uncover causation. Angrist argues that improvements in research design along with various econometric techniques have improved the credibility of measurement in a complex world. Roberts pushes back and the conversation concludes with a discussion of how to assess the reliability of findings in controversial public policy areas.