Cost drops, capability gains, and coding boom

Peter and hosts discuss rapid cost improvements, cheaper open models, and coding agents driving explosive revenue growth in 2025.

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This year-end live show features nine rapid-fire conversations to make sense of AI’s 2025 and what might define 2026. PSA for AI builders: Interested in alignment, governance, or AI safety? Learn more about the MATS Summer 2026 Fellowship and submit your name to be notified when applications open: https://matsprogram.org/s26-tcr. New York Assemblymember Alex Boris breaks down the RAISE Act's bid to curb catastrophic AI risks, the governor negotiations, and why a16z-backed ads are targeting him. Former White House AI adviser Dean Ball maps the emerging coalitions on AI, federal preemption, and what fast-improving coding agents could mean for policy and jobs. Forecaster Peter Wildeford debates selling vs "renting" chips to China and offers a 2026 outlook on agents, costs, and robotics. Recorded live as part of our AI 2025→2026 series (Part 2).

Sponsors:

Gemini 3 in Google AI Studio:

Gemini 3 in Google AI Studio lets you build fully functional apps from a simple description—no coding required. Start vibe coding your idea today at https://ai.studio/build

MATS:

MATS is a fully funded 12-week research program pairing rising talent with top mentors in AI alignment, interpretability, security, and governance. Apply for the next cohort at https://matsprogram.org/s26-tcr

Framer:

Framer is the all-in-one tool to design, iterate, and publish stunning websites with powerful AI features. Start creating for free and use code COGNITIVE to get one free month of Framer Pro at https://framer.com/design

Shopify:

Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide, handling 10% of U.S. e-commerce. With hundreds of templates, AI tools for product descriptions, and seamless marketing campaign creation, it's like having a design studio and marketing team in one. Start your $1/month trial today at https://shopify.com/cognitive

Tasklet:

Tasklet is an AI agent that automates your work 24/7; just describe what you want in plain English and it gets the job done. Try it for free and use code COGREV for 50% off your first month at https://tasklet.ai

CHAPTERS:

(00:00) Sponsor: Gemini 3 in Google AI Studio

(00:31) RAISE Act status

(04:52) Catastrophic risk focus

(10:47) Super PAC backlash

(16:17) Data centers and grid

(19:47) Palantir and surveillance

(23:42) Dean Ball joins (Part 1)

(23:46) Sponsors: MATS | Framer

(27:05) Dean Ball joins (Part 2)

(32:00) Social media lessons

(36:22) Trump preemption and chips (Part 1)