Defining P(Doom) and 50% by 2050

Peter Clarke (Team Futurism) invited me on his podcast to probe the worldview of a Yudkowskian, and I ended up explaining how my 50% P(Doom) and 10% P(Foom) informs my choices.

Peter and I met at LessOnline 2026, where he was one of the participants in a live Jubilee-style debate about x-risk. This one’s a little tamer, but we still cover plenty of ground, like:

Why nuclear risk is underrated yet AI doom overshadows it;

Why nobody at AI summits is appropriately freaked out;

How Yudkowsky’s data center “airstrike” claim gets mischaracterized;

Why a superintelligence that doesn’t already value humanity won’t spare us;

And the “Icarus curve”, my techno-optimist forecast pre-superintelligence.

Subscribe to the Team Futurism podcast —https://www.youtube.com/@teamfuturism3554

Timestamps

00:00:00 — Welcoming Liron on Team Futurism

00:00:38 — How Liron Got Yudkowsky-Pilled

00:04:11 — AI 2027 and the Next Qualitative Breakthrough

00:05:52 — What’s Your P(Doom)?

00:10:22 — Why Isn’t Everyone Freaked Out?

00:13:09 — How Should We Then Live?

00:16:22 — Setting the Record Straight on Yudkowsky’s “Airstrike” Claims

00:20:54 — Two Doom Buckets: Misuse vs. Rogue AI

00:24:25 — The Bioweapon Kill Scenario

00:29:02 — The “Benevolent God” Cope

00:33:06 — Epistemology: What We’re Allowed to Know

00:40:08 — Dario’s Country of Geniuses in a Data Center

00:44:37 — The Icarus Curve

00:47:17 — Meaning and Purpose in the AI Era

00:49:32 — Wrap-Up

Links

Team Futurism on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/@teamfuturism3554

Peter Clarke on X — https://x.com/heypeterclarke

Liron vs. 9 Rationalists at LessOnline 2026 (the “Surrounded” debate with Peter) — https://lironshapira.substack.com/p/will-ai-actually-destroy-humanity

AI 2027 — https://ai-2027.com/

“If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies” by Eliezer Yudkowsky & Nate Soares — https://ifanyonebuildsit.com/

Species | Documenting AGI, Drew Spartz’s channel — https://www.youtube.com/@AISpecies

Dario Amodei’s “Machines of Loving Grace” — https://darioamodei.com/essay/machines-of-loving-grace

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