Highlights From The Comments On Great Families
Astral Codex Ten Podcast
00:00
The Odds of a Nobele Cluster Are One in Ten Thousand
If we re run your numbers, assuming one in 100 thousand odds of a nobele, the chances of a three prize family cluster are something like struck through. You don't even need to have met your nobell winning relative for these assumptions to be true. So i think your analysis refutes the idea that it's pure chance, which i don't believe anyway. But it doesn't refute the possibility that it's chance plus weak environmental effects. I also still think we have pa hacking going on in the experimental design that is partly obvis geting the results.
Play episode from 14:44
Transcript


