Astral Codex Ten Podcast cover image

Highlights From The Comments On Great Families

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

00:00

The Odds of a Nobele Cluster Are One in Ten Thousand

If we re run your numbers, assuming one in 100 thousand odds of a nobele, the chances of a three prize family cluster are something like struck through. You don't even need to have met your nobell winning relative for these assumptions to be true. So i think your analysis refutes the idea that it's pure chance, which i don't believe anyway. But it doesn't refute the possibility that it's chance plus weak environmental effects. I also still think we have pa hacking going on in the experimental design that is partly obvis geting the results.

Transcript
Play full episode

The AI-powered Podcast Player

Save insights by tapping your headphones, chat with episodes, discover the best highlights - and more!
App store bannerPlay store banner
Get the app